Zach Hyman nails what ails Edmonton Oilers in Stanley Cup Final (2024)

Game Day 22, Oilers vs Panthers, Stanley Cup Final Game 4

The 2024 Stanley Cup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers is at once an easy and a difficult series to figure out.

The easy part is that Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has so far pulled off a legendary performance, stealing two games outright where his team had about half as many high-quality shots on net as the Oilers had.

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No matter how fast and sharp the Oilers move the puck around, Bobrovsky is one step ahead of them and ready to cover off the net.

He has to be the clear leader for series MVP at this point.

But the series isn’t quite so simple as that. At the Edmonton end, Stuart Skinner has been OK in nets, save for one rancid puck play in Game 3, yet Florida has scored often on its limited Grade A shots.

What is happening? Oilers forward Zach Hyman has a good answer, but first here’s the issue broken down into numbers.

The Cult of Hockey’s video review has the Oilers with 43 Grade A shots, the Panthers with just 25.

But when it comes to the more dangerous subset of 5-alarm shots it’s pretty much even, the Oilers with 19, the Panthers with 17. If you drilled down even more and you looked at the handful of absolutely killer scoring chances, I suspect Florida would have a few more than the Oilers.

But based only on the number of Grade A shots, we calculate the Oilers should have scored about six or seven more goals, while the Panthers should have scored about about three less. That calculation assumes all things being equal in the goaltending department, which it hasn’t been.

If you think our numbers are out of whack, I note they’re in line with numbers found by stat-of-the-art stats firm Stathletes, which has found Edmonton, based on the quality of its shots, should have 5.44 more goals and Florida should have 2.98 fewer goals, about the same as the Cult of Hockey’s calculations.

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Hyman-pothosis

What’s going on? This goes back to the notion that when it comes to the very best chances, Florida is getting more of them and is certainly cashing in on more of them, due to great shooting, puck luck, and the different between the two goalies.

Edmonton Oilers forward Zack Hyman put it best talking to the media on Friday.

He nailed the two things ailing the Oilers.

Asked how the series has spiralled out of control for the Oilers, Hyman said, “I don’t think it has spiralled, I think we are down 3-0 because we have given up freebies. It’s not like we are getting absolutely dominated by a team that is better than us. It is moments in the game where they have shown a little more maturity than we have and they haven’t given us any freebies. All the goals we’ve had to get we’ve had to work extremely hard for. I think if we are able to eliminate those freebies and play the way we can play and go to the hard areas, we will give ourselves a chance every game. You just got to win one and you got to start the momentum. We’re just focused on one.”

Yes, Hyman nails it, with the Oilers plagued by too man brain farts, mental errors leading to the most dangerous of chances against, which the Panthers are unfailingly putting into the Edmonton net.

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Asked about his team’s power play, and if the Oilers are getting good looks on net to score, Hyman then nailed the second thing about why the Oilers are losing, the obvious thing, Bobrovsky: “There’s clean looks,” he said. “He’s making good saves.”

In today’s press conference, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch had a similar focus in talking about how often Florida is cashing in on its chances off Edmonton mistakes. Edmonton has an incredible capacity to turn a non-threatening game situation into a goal against, shooting themselves in the skate repeatedly.

“It’s very disappointing. That’s pretty much the game. The game is about mistakes. Often when we look at the plays that are made — the sauce passes, the one-time shots, the dekes, stuff like that — but it usually just comes to forcing the opposition to make a mistake and then capitalizing on it. I think we’ve forced Florida to make mistakes. I think that’s shown up on how many scoring chances we’ve got, and what the high danger scoring chances have shown that we have forced them to make mistakes, but we’ve got to keep pushing, forcing them to make even more mistakes and now it’s capitalizing on them.”

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Asked about the need to pass less and shoot more, he said: “Our shot attempts have been high. There’s that element of luck. Like Broberg’s goal. That is luck. We didn’t have anybody in front of the net. We had somebody off to the side and it went in off their defender. You shoot enough pucks, things will go in. But if you’re shooting pucks where there’s little chance they will go in, then you having to defend.”

P.S. Knoblauch refuses to tip his hand on the line-up but I would not be surprised to see a great surprise, Sam Gagner in the game.

Prediction: If he plays, Gagner will score a goal. You with me, friends?

At the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Insider predicts McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard will all sign new deals with Oilers

STAPLES: Oilers will continue to lose until they stop beating themselves

LEAVINS: Player grades in Game 3 loss

McCURDY: Trends that must reverse for Oilers to beat FLA.

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